Global patterns in monthly activity of influenza virus, respiratory syncytial virus, parainfluenza virus, and metapneumovirus: a systematic analysis

Li Y, Reeves RM, Wang X, Bassat Q, Brooks WA, Cohen C, Moore DP, Nunes M, Rath B, Campbell H, Nair H; RSV Global Epidemiology Network; RESCEU investigators.


The relationships between the  seasonalities of RSV, Influenza Virus and Parainfluenza virus remain poorly understood, and a robust predictive model for epidemics has not yet been developed in the case of RSV.

While the consistent and predictable temporal relationship between RSV and Influenza that has been well characterised in the developed world is observed in this study, this relationship is not found to exist in tropical and sub-tropical seasons. RSV is found to remain relatively predictable and seasonal in tropical and sub-tropical regions, while influenza becomes increasingly variable and less seasonal closer to the equator.
A model was developed based on climate and epidemiology data, and was found to be able to predict epidemics in these diseases with an error rate of .1 months for RSV, and -.2 for influenza.

Data integration projects of this scale are vital in the development of robust and reliable epidemic prediction frameworks that can aid in the yearly preparation for disease epidemics by helping to time vaccination and immunoprophylaxis.

Full article on PubMed